Investment Strategy
Research notes on portfolio construction, diversification, cash deployment, duration, income, and disciplined allocation decisions.
Balancing Liquidity, Income, and Long-Term Growth Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
As markets slip on Iran tensions, investors face the perennial challenge of balancing liquidity, income, and long-term growth. This note offers sober, principles-based guidance for structuring diversified portfolios in a volatile environment.
Scenario Planning Over Single-Path Forecasting in an Uncertain 2025
As 2025 unfolds, the limitations of single-path forecasting become evident. This note explores how scenario planning can better prepare investors for multiple macroeconomic outcomes.
Duration, Income and Downside Resilience: Navigating Uncertainty in Early 2025
As first-quarter debates over rate paths, earnings durability, and fiscal policy persist, investors are reassessing the role of duration, income generation, and downside resilience in portfolio construction.
Diversification After Concentrated Equity Leadership: A Measured Approach
As equity markets remain dominated by a narrow set of leaders, investors are reassessing diversification. This note examines the rationale for broadening portfolios, the challenges of timing, and the risks of over- or under-diversification in the current environment.
Rebalancing When Cash Yields Remain Relevant: A Framework for 2025
With cash yields still attractive amid uncertain inflation and policy shifts, rebalancing strategies need to account for the opportunity cost of holding cash versus deploying into risk assets. This note outlines a disciplined approach for 2025.
Portfolio Construction Under Rate Uncertainty: A Framework for 2025
As markets assess the durability of inflation progress and the path of policy rates, investors face a challenging environment for portfolio construction. This note outlines a disciplined approach to navigating rate uncertainty, emphasizing diversification, quality, and adaptability.
Currency Exposure in International Portfolios: Navigating a Complex Landscape
As of early 2025, currency exposure in international portfolios presents both opportunities and risks amid policy uncertainty, inflation concerns, and divergent central bank paths. This note examines the current landscape and strategic considerations.
Scenario Planning vs. Single-Path Forecasting: Navigating 2025's Uncertainty
As investors enter 2025, the limitations of single-path forecasting become apparent amid policy uncertainty, inflation risks, and shifting bond markets. Scenario planning offers a more resilient framework for navigating multiple possible futures.
Duration, Income and Downside Resilience: Positioning for 2025
As 2024 draws to a close, investors are weighing duration exposure, income generation, and downside resilience against a backdrop of evolving rate expectations, fiscal uncertainty, and year-end portfolio adjustments.
Diversification After Concentrated Equity Leadership: A Measured Perspective
As 2024 draws to a close, the persistent concentration in equity markets prompts a reassessment of portfolio diversification. This note explores the rationale for broadening exposure beyond a narrow set of leaders, given the current macro environment and year-end positioning considerations.
Rebalancing When Cash Yields Remain Relevant: A Post-Election Perspective
As cash yields stay elevated post-election, investors face a strategic question: how to rebalance portfolios when the government bond reference rates offers a compelling alternative. This note explores the trade-offs and practical considerations for maintaining disciplined allocation in a shifting macro landscape.
Portfolio Construction Under Rate Uncertainty: Navigating the Post-Election Landscape
As markets digest the US election outcome, investors face a complex backdrop of uncertain fiscal policy, shifting rate expectations, and sector rotation. This note outlines a measured approach to portfolio construction in an environment where the path of interest rates remains highly uncertain.
Navigating Currency Exposure in International Portfolios Amid U.S. Election Uncertainty
As the U.S. election approaches, currency exposure in international portfolios warrants careful consideration. We examine the interplay of Treasury yields, inflation, and geopolitical risks, and offer a measured framework for positioning.
Navigating Uncertainty: The Case for Scenario Planning Over Single-Path Forecasting
As markets face U.S. election uncertainty, shifting Treasury yields, and geopolitical risks, investors are increasingly turning to scenario planning rather than relying on single-path forecasts to build resilient portfolios.
Duration, Income and Downside Resilience: Navigating an Uncertain Rate Environment
As markets await clarity on Federal Reserve easing, investors are reassessing the role of duration and income in portfolio construction. This note explores how fixed income can provide downside resilience amid election uncertainty, global growth concerns, and shifting central bank guidance.
Diversification After Concentrated Equity Leadership: A Strategic Reassessment
With equity markets dominated by a narrow set of large-cap growth stocks, investors are reassessing diversification strategies amid shifting macro conditions and potential Federal Reserve easing.
Rebalancing When Cash Yields Remain Relevant
With cash yields still attractive amid uncertain Fed policy and market volatility, rebalancing strategies that incorporate cash as a tactical asset class can help manage risk and maintain portfolio discipline.